The red wave promised in 2022 finally came crashing to shore on Tuesday – but it didn’t do much to boost Republican-held seats in the state Senate and Assembly.

That doesn’t mean President Donald Trump won every county in New York. He didn’t. But he earned a greater share in most New York counties – even Democratic strongholds – on Tuesday than he did in 2024. In fact, Trump gained a percentage of the vote in every county in New York except for Warren County, where Vice President Kamala Harris gained 3.4% more votes than President Joe Biden did in 2020 while Trump lost 1.16% from his vote total in 2024. In total, Trump still lost New York state, but increased his percentage of the vote from 37.67% in 2020 to 43.9% in 2024.

The Trump bump didn’t extend to the state Legislature, where Democrats stand poised to continue their supermajority in both the Assembly and Senate after several incumbent Democrats facing re-election challenges kept their seats while Democrats won three vacant seats in the state Senate that Republicans had hoped to flip.

Republicans did pick up one seat in the state Senate when Steve Chan defeated Iwen Chu for the Senate seat in southern Brooklyn, with that win breaking the supermajority Democrats had held in the state Senate.

“Not only did we make gains and expand our conference but we broke that supermajority which I think is going to be to the benefit of all New Yorkers,” state Sen. George Borrello, R-Sunset Bay, told Spectrum’s State of Politics after the election.

It’s not surprising for Republicans to struggle in New York given the 2-to-1 enrollment edge for Democrats in the state. While Trump made inroads in the state, the increase in votes for Trump didn’t translate into enough votes to make serious changes to the state Legislature.

What happened in New York bucked the national trend for state legislatures. Trump’s stronger-than-anticipated showing in Pennsylvania has Pennsylvania Republicans on the verge of retaking the Pennsylvania state House of Representatives while Republicans made up ground in state legislatures in Michigan and Minnesota. Republicans controlled 56 state legislative bodies going into Tuesday’s election while Democrats controlled 41, with the Minnesota state Senate temporarily tied due to a vacancy.

But, could the GOP be gaining some strength in New York?

It’s a valid question. If Trump’s showing Tuesday were the only strong Republican showing it would be easy to say his performance was a one-off driven by poor Democratic Party turnout. But Trump’s stronger-than-expected showing, particularly in New York City and in other counties typically dominated by Democrats, may be telling another story when one looks back to 2022 when Lee Zeldin

Zeldin lost by a mere 6% in his 2022 election race with Gov. Kathy Hochul, a stronger showing than many pundits expected given Democrats enrollment edge.

Trump’s performance was similar to Zeldin’s in several areas, including Brooklyn, where Zeldin received 28.9% of the vote in 2022 and Trump received 28.5% of the vote on Tuesday. Queens, another traditionally weak area for Republicans, saw Zeldin receive 37% of the vote in 2022 while Trump’s performance was nearly identical on Tuesday at 38%.

The New York Times noted Harris’ victory spread in New York over Trump was less than half that of Hillary Clinton and Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

“If what we’re seeing is a permanent realignment of portions of the Democratic base joining the Republicans, it makes it more possible that if everything went right for a Republican they have a good shot of winning a statewide race,” Larry Levy, a suburban politics expert at Hofstra University, told Politico.

Republicans have a long way to go before they’re popping champagne celebrating a statewide win over a Democratic Party candidate – but Trump holding onto Zeldin’s 2022 gains may be a start. For his part, Sen. Michael Gianaris, D-Astoria and deputy Senate leader, said it’s up to Democrats to change their messaging after Tuesday’s election.

“We’re just not focusing on the issues that we need to as a party to convince those people to come out,” he told Spectrum’s State of Politics. “We have to do more to motivate our own voters and speak to the issues they care about, helping make their lives more affordable.”