The New York Independent System Operator’s 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment finds more concerns about the state’s electric grid.

The RNA, issued every two years, evaluates the future reliability of the New York electric grid considering forecasts of power demand, planned upgrades to the transmission system, public policy and changes to the generation mix over a ten-year period. The report identifies a violation of reliability criteria in New York City in 2033 and highlights growing risks to electric system reliability statewide. According to the findings of the RNA, the identified New York City reliability need is 17 megawatts in the summer of 2033 and increases to 97 megawatts in the summer of 2034.

“Our latest report demonstrates the continued importance of the NYISO’s in-depth planning process and the need to closely monitor the rapidly changing electric grid,” said Zach Smith, Senior Vice President, System and Resource Planning. “In this RNA, we highlight several risk factors that could adversely affect system reliability in the months and years ahead.”

ISO officials say electrification of the transportation and building sectors and large, energy-intensive commercial projects that include data centers and chip fabrication are increasing demand at the same time 2023 legislation requires the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to deactivate its small natural gas plants located in New York City and Long Island known as peaker plants.

Deactivating the peaker plants would result in a loss of 517 megawatts, though the 2023 state law does allow the New York Power Authority to confer with the state ISO to determine if the plants are necessary for electric system reliability.

Power shortfalls could be overcome if new electric generating capacity comes online as well as construction of new transmission facilities. Of particular importance, according to NYISO officials, is the on-time completion of the Champlain Hudson Power Express project that will import hydropower from Canada into New York City through an interconnection point at the Canada-New York border. Cables will be installed for 339 miles underground and underwater from Lake Champlain at the U.S-Canada border to a Converter Station in Astoria, Queens, where the power will be converted so it can be injected into New York City’s energy grid for local distribution.

The project is supposed to be completed by 2026, and ISO officials warn that a delay in the project could mean there isn’t enough electric capacity in New York City starting in 2026. If the project is delayed ISO officials say there will need to be either new generation brought online or a decrease in projected demand.

The projected transition from a summer-peaking system to a winter-peaking system also poses challenges to grid reliability, the RNA finds. The shift, driven by the electrification of the building and transportation sectors, is expected to accelerate over the next 10 years. Increased winter demand introduces new reliability concerns, particularly around fuel availability for gas-fired generators. It’s a concern raised by state Sen. George Borrello, R-Sunset Bay, earlier this year. Borrello introduced S.9892 in the state Senate to establish a 15-member commission to evaluate the impact of grid electrification on the safety and reliability of heating systems in snowstorms that cause power outages, and to develop strategies and best practices to maximize grid reliability and resiliency during extreme winter weather events. Among its members would be at least one member appointed by the three largest utility companies servicing Western New York.

“In December of 2022, Western New York experienced a devastating blizzard that knocked out electricity and left residents in their homes without heat,” Borrello said in his legislative justification. “The tragedy resulted in the loss of life of 47 New Yorkers. As we work to modernize our grid, ensuring the safety of New Yorkers is paramount so that we may prevent such devastation in the future.”

ISO officials say on the coldest days, natural gas distribution companies prioritize residential heating and limit the fuel available to generators without firm contracts. The coldest days correspond to peak winter demand periods when the gas fleet is needed most.